Following the UK Election

UK POLITICS AND BREXIT IN DISARRAY

Prime Minister Theresa May in the United Kingdom (UK) gambled on a snap election and lost.  Even though her Conservative Party won about 55 more seats than any other party, it failed to obtain a majority of the 650 total seats in the fabled House of Commons.  She may cobble together a weak governing arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, but her own party is in shambles and May’s tenure as prime minister is in serious doubt.

The 50-day campaign was punctuated by horrible terrorist attacks in Manchester and then London. Twenty-two young people died as they exited the Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, and eight others died on London Bridge and the nearby 1000-year-old Borough Market.  Casualties in London could have been much worse if the three terrorists had worn real suicide vests instead of fake ones, and used automatic weapons instead of long knives.

The last few weeks of the campaign focused on getting tougher on terrorism, with most other issues discussed in a superficial fashion.  Theresa May asked for the trust of UK voters but ducked all major debates.  She expected to win by default because the public was very suspicious of the leadership skills of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, who voices some far-left political preferences.  In the end, May personalized the election but proved to be a weak campaigner, whereas Corbyn was robust, disciplined, and exceeded the low expectations of many voters.

A year ago, 52 percent of those voting in the historic Brexit referendum opted to leave the EU in order to entrench national sovereignty, gain control over immigration, and exempt their country from decisions rendered by the European Court of Justice.

However, the UK will now enter talks with the EU in a weak bargaining position.  The Conservative Party supported Brexit and depicted the election as the UK versus the 27 other members of the EU.  May argued that she was the best politician to lead the UK team in the upcoming divorce proceedings with Europe.  She even insisted that no deal would be better than a bad deal, and that the UK would emerge triumphant following the negotiations.

In reality, the upcoming UK-EU discussions will result in lose-lose for both sides.  The EU will lose its second largest economy and one of its two nuclear powers (France is the other).  The UK will lose preferential access to it largest export and investment markets.  Many high-paying jobs in the financial district will be at risk, especially in transactions denominated in the euro currency.  High-skilled immigrants will be less likely to come to a country with a market of 65 million people instead of the current EU market of 510 million. Auto companies are already considering moving some facilities to the continent in order to take advantage of the EU’s single market and customs union, features that the UK will likely forfeit after the divorce. Businesses deplore uncertainty, and there will be plenty of question marks following Thursday’s indecisive election and the ensuing Brexit negotiations.

Currently, the Western alliance is reeling after the tumultuous NATO and G7 summits and President Trump’s insistence on “America First,” a reincarnation of the old “Fortress America” mantra.  Brexit will further weaken Western political, economic, and defense unity, as well as coordinated efforts to combat terrorism.

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, this is far from the “finest hour” in terms of trans-Atlantic relations and European unity.