Monday, June 27, 2016

Not just another posting





Brexit Is Harmful to UK, EU, and US Interests

 In a referendum held on June 23, 52 percent of UK voters decided to
end their nation’s 43-year membership in the European Union.
Unfortunately, this outcome will result in major problems for the UK,
EU, and the United States.

The UK will lose its privileged access to what has been the world’s
largest economic union with 510 million consumers and an annual GDP of
over $18 trillion.  The City of London’s position as one of the two
leading global financial centers will also suffer as its links to
continental Europe become more tenuous.  US companies have long
favored locating in the UK which permits them to continue to operate
in English and still have access to the vast EU marketplace.  That
option will now be terminated, having negative consequences on the
UK’s ability to attract and retain American foreign direct investment.

Within the UK, Scots voted overwhelmingly in favor of remaining in the
EU and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will now push for a
new referendum on Scottish sovereignty.  Northern Ireland also voted
in favor of remaining in the EU and Sinn Fein and its adherents will
agitate once again for the reunification of Northern Ireland with the
Republic of Ireland, a country which remains a stalwart member of the
EU.  Young people throughout the UK also supported continued
membership in the EU, happy with being part of a much larger economic
entity and having the right to seek jobs and travel freely throughout
the 28 nations associated with the European Union.

The UK is the only country to have ever voted to leave the European
Union and the EU will suffer from this divorce.  European integration
has been a noble experiment and over the past 70 years the continent
has prospered economically and enjoyed relative peace, in sharp
contrast to the previous 70 years when three major wars were fought on
European soil, the last two resulting in World War I in 1914 and World
War II in 1939.  In recent years, the EU, especially the 19-member
euro area which uses the common euro currency, has suffered from tepid
economic growth and minimal job creation.  Its demographic conditions
are alarming and it now faces major immigration challenges from the
Middle East and North Africa, ISIS-linked terrorist attacks, and a
growing threat from Putin’s Russia.  Nationalist and populist
movements are gaining adherents, and some opinion polls show
anti-Brussels’ sentiments are actually stronger in some EU countries
than in the UK.  The European Union is going through a very trying
period and the schism with the UK will exacerbate these difficulties.

As for the United States, the transatlantic relationship has been the
keystone of US defense and diplomatic ties since 1945.  The Marshall
Plan of 1947 provided critical aid to a devastated European continent,
helping to rebuild it using a market-oriented approach and keeping at
bay communist threats both from within Europe and from the Soviet
Union.  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was a military
alliance created in 1949 with the expressed purpose of dissuading the
Soviets from ever invading western Europe.  Today, Europe is the
leading trade and investment partner of the United States and both
sides of the Atlantic share common perspectives on many leading
political, economic, environmental, and defense issues.

The UK has been the most stalwart partner of the United States during
the post-World War II period.  It is the world’s fifth largest
economy, the EU’s leading military power, and only one of two EU
nations possessing nuclear weapons.  It has often supported US
policies within meetings of EU decision-makers.  That voice within the
EU will now be lost and may result in more tenuous US-EU relations in
certain issue areas, such as sanctions on Russia and policies toward
resolving challenges within the greater Middle East.  It is not
surprising that the Kremlin has voiced support for the UK referendum
results, as had the Iranian government.  Anything which might weaken
European and transatlantic unity is welcomed by nations which often
express anti-US sentiments.

The Obama administration should abandon its “last in the queue” policy
toward trade negotiations with the post-referendum UK and support a
new US-UK free trade zone.  Most of the work on this issue has already
been completed through the ongoing Transatlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership (TTIP) negotiations with the EU.  Obama should also
reaffirm the importance of NATO and stress that both the UK and the EU
nations are of vital importance to the United States, and that
Washington stands ready to assist these countries to overcome major
security threats.

The UK referendum outcome was a step in the wrong direction, but it
should not be allowed to cause long-term damage to relations within
Europe and the transatlantic community.

Written by Earl H. Fry

Ed's comment on Facebook

This is pretty compelling evidence of the dangers of public referendums, ballot initiatives, etc. I understand the mistrust of elected officials, congress in particular, but in my opinion, electing the right people and then letting/requiring them do their job is much better government than leaving our fate to the public, many of whom have no idea what they are voting on, or the implications.



  • Though of course searches for these questions were dwarfed by the general interest in "Brexit results," the question "what is the EU" spiked in popularity across all parts of the U.K., in this order: Northern Ireland, Wales, England, Scotland.
    Google Trends, on Twitter, has highlighted a few local spikes, too, with "what is Brexit" a top search related to the referendum in both Northern Ireland and Scotland. Both of them voted in favor of remaining in the EU.























































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